Study goals
The study aimed to analyze the determinant variables of personal credit default in a cooperative credit system in the State of Minas Gerais, composed of 73 singular unions.
Relevance / originality
Despite its importance, capillarity and the volume of credit operations, there is a gap in the literature regarding the issue of default in these cooperatives contemplating a large sample of their operations.
Methodology / approach
The hypotheses of the research were formulated based on the theoretical framework, which were evaluated according to the estimates obtained with the use of logistic regression adjusted to data from 20.560 credit operations, contracted from October 2019 to July 2020.
Main results
The econometric model proved to be consistent and able to identify the determinants of delinquency. In addition to the relation between the variables, the odds ratio of a cooperative member becoming in default were estimated, taking their profile into account.
Theoretical / methodological contributions
The research resulted in the development of an econometric model, extracted from the theoretical framework, with the ability to provide important contributions in analysis focused on the causes of default in credit portfolios.
Social / management contributions
The model presented and its application are an technical support tool for credit unions, as well as to other segments of the financial industry, as they provide support in decision-making and credit risk management strategies.