Resumo

The disconnect between spot and derivative prices, particularly in futures markets, presents significant challenges for hedging strategies in agricultural commodities. This study aims to identify and synthesize key areas and dimensions of hedge effectiveness using a a systematic literature review.

Through a systematic review, this study delivers a comprehensive map of hedge-effectiveness scholarship. The proposed agenda guides academics, exchanges, and regulators toward research and product innovation that can enhance risk management in increasingly volatile agricultural commodity markets.

We extracted 66 articles (2015-2024) from Web of Science and Scopus. Content analysis classified studies by market context, hedge instruments, model families, and evaluation metrics, identifying conceptual gaps and methodological frontiers.

Futures contracts dominate the literature, while cross-hedging and OTC such as swaps receive little attention Multivariate GARCH variants account for 38% of model usage; AI and machine-learning applications appear in fewer than 4% of studies.Fuel represents primary enviromental and pricing topic.

This article advances theory by linking hedging in agricultural commodities to Modern Portfolio Theory and the Law of One Price, and methodologically contributes a PRISMA-based systematic review with a six-category classification framework, mapping econometric techniques and research gaps.

The article contributes socially and managerially by highlighting hedging’s role in stabilizing agricultural markets, guiding producers and policymakers in emerging economies, stressing logistics and fuel risks, and encouraging development of tailored derivative products to improve risk management, efficiency, and value preservation.

The disconnect between spot and derivative prices, particularly in futures markets, presents significant challenges for hedging strategies in agricultural commodities. This study aims to identify and synthesize key areas and dimensions of hedge effectiveness using a a systematic literature review.

Through a systematic review, this study delivers a comprehensive map of hedge-effectiveness scholarship. The proposed agenda guides academics, exchanges, and regulators toward research and product innovation that can enhance risk management in increasingly volatile agricultural commodity markets.

We extracted 66 articles (2015-2024) from Web of Science and Scopus. Content analysis classified studies by market context, hedge instruments, model families, and evaluation metrics, identifying conceptual gaps and methodological frontiers.

Futures contracts dominate the literature, while cross-hedging and OTC such as swaps receive little attention Multivariate GARCH variants account for 38% of model usage; AI and machine-learning applications appear in fewer than 4% of studies.Fuel represents primary enviromental and pricing topic.

This article advances theory by linking hedging in agricultural commodities to Modern Portfolio Theory and the Law of One Price, and methodologically contributes a PRISMA-based systematic review with a six-category classification framework, mapping econometric techniques and research gaps.

The article contributes socially and managerially by highlighting hedging’s role in stabilizing agricultural markets, guiding producers and policymakers in emerging economies, stressing logistics and fuel risks, and encouraging development of tailored derivative products to improve risk management, efficiency, and value preservation.